* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/17/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 46 58 70 81 91 99 104 110 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 46 58 70 81 91 99 104 110 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 34 43 55 68 80 88 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 17 15 8 8 8 4 8 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 5 4 7 10 3 5 8 3 8 8 8 SHEAR DIR 37 48 47 46 52 42 54 86 134 83 96 164 188 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 126 127 132 134 129 128 129 127 122 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 128 126 126 131 132 126 125 127 125 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 68 62 64 65 65 64 65 63 70 73 74 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 9 10 10 11 14 15 18 20 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 38 40 54 66 73 89 83 84 80 84 94 200 MB DIV 59 71 62 63 59 88 63 103 107 111 68 72 75 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -11 -10 -13 -12 -9 -13 -9 -12 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 461 610 748 876 1007 1260 1508 1727 1696 1706 1708 1640 1624 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.5 12.1 13.2 14.6 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 21.0 22.4 23.8 25.1 26.4 28.8 31.1 33.1 34.9 36.7 38.7 40.8 42.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 10 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 10 12 11 19 22 19 18 12 11 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 26. 38. 50. 61. 71. 79. 84. 90. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/17/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/17/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED