* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/17/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 34 44 53 63 72 81 89 95 99 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 34 44 53 63 72 81 89 95 99 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 38 48 59 70 81 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 10 13 15 11 10 7 8 4 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 7 8 9 6 6 4 0 5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 36 43 38 34 26 30 55 112 115 68 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 129 129 128 127 129 133 129 125 123 121 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 129 129 127 125 127 130 127 123 120 117 114 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 67 66 64 65 63 67 68 68 64 64 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 14 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 43 49 56 64 60 73 77 81 81 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 50 74 116 98 83 40 68 77 84 66 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -11 -17 -14 -10 -10 -4 -6 -6 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 155 288 438 576 704 948 1175 1394 1614 1860 1911 1787 1703 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.4 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 17.9 19.4 20.8 22.1 23.4 25.9 28.1 30.2 32.3 34.7 37.2 39.7 42.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 11 11 10 11 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 6 6 7 13 18 19 17 15 15 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 24. 33. 43. 52. 61. 69. 75. 79. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/17/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/17/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED