* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082012 08/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 52 60 67 71 70 64 59 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 52 60 67 71 70 64 59 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 43 50 57 62 61 55 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 3 5 12 11 21 34 42 49 39 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -6 -4 0 3 8 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 204 231 272 293 311 293 275 259 258 251 243 246 242 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.1 26.3 26.4 25.5 24.8 23.4 22.8 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 128 124 121 117 119 120 112 106 96 92 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 113 110 107 104 102 105 105 99 95 85 80 77 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -55.1 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 43 45 47 50 52 58 56 55 52 52 46 35 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 7 8 10 13 14 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -102 -108 -88 -76 -57 -50 -36 -3 5 13 -9 -21 -23 200 MB DIV 4 6 16 15 1 10 18 20 21 18 8 0 0 700-850 TADV 6 13 7 -1 -7 -1 2 12 16 22 14 15 -16 LAND (KM) 1685 1588 1487 1450 1369 1343 1457 1645 1870 2017 1614 1310 1095 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.8 32.9 33.7 34.4 35.1 35.3 35.4 35.6 36.3 37.5 38.5 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.3 54.9 54.4 53.3 52.1 48.6 44.5 40.4 36.3 32.0 27.6 24.3 21.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 16 17 17 17 18 16 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 12 5 5 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 16 CX,CY: -3/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 372 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 8. 4. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 22. 31. 37. 41. 40. 34. 29. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082012 EIGHT 08/16/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082012 EIGHT 08/16/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)