* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 49 57 66 71 76 81 87 90 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 40 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 39 37 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 9 8 1 5 5 7 8 8 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -4 1 -1 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 241 235 242 292 19 350 85 168 145 120 107 68 84 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 29.0 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 142 143 154 166 165 165 170 171 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 141 143 145 155 166 163 161 164 166 162 158 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 11 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 56 57 63 63 69 67 72 71 71 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 64 61 53 51 50 25 26 17 41 18 36 51 200 MB DIV 28 25 33 45 42 30 35 21 3 18 13 48 40 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -6 -1 0 -2 1 -2 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 330 319 365 185 47 6 -77 -177 -78 -169 -171 -103 -66 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 78.2 79.8 81.5 83.2 86.5 89.6 92.3 94.9 97.2 99.4 101.2 102.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 17 16 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 52 70 67 51 48 31 0 45 42 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 36. 41. 46. 51. 57. 60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/13/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)