* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 48 52 55 57 60 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 48 52 55 57 60 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 44 47 49 52 56 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 4 6 10 7 16 20 26 16 21 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 5 1 0 -1 -2 0 -3 -3 -7 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 56 15 281 294 301 289 264 260 285 263 279 281 305 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 131 134 139 142 145 148 149 147 140 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 128 133 137 143 147 150 154 153 147 135 132 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 51 52 54 53 55 57 58 61 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 4 3 0 8 10 13 10 18 25 49 43 200 MB DIV -9 -10 -3 4 9 14 25 33 19 11 -2 9 19 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -12 -7 -8 -6 -2 -7 -6 -2 0 4 3 LAND (KM) 1501 1386 1278 1159 1055 896 678 411 422 322 276 256 287 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 17 15 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 17 34 30 32 40 52 56 38 73 38 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 36. 37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/09/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)