* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 40 45 50 52 54 53 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 40 45 50 52 54 53 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 43 44 44 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 1 1 4 6 10 10 13 12 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 10 10 9 5 4 9 7 7 8 8 SHEAR DIR 61 91 126 113 358 264 263 230 244 206 225 227 238 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 123 124 122 121 121 123 126 129 133 137 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 120 119 119 117 116 117 118 120 122 127 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 53 49 49 44 43 40 36 37 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 5 -2 -1 13 11 9 -10 -14 -36 -40 -37 200 MB DIV -14 -13 -14 -20 -27 -18 23 32 37 20 16 -6 3 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -9 -8 -9 -7 -1 2 1 3 4 10 8 LAND (KM) 1901 1913 1903 1815 1733 1591 1445 1304 1220 1159 1111 977 870 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.5 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.2 37.3 38.5 39.6 41.7 44.0 46.3 48.3 50.1 52.1 54.1 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 18 19 14 12 16 12 15 17 20 23 27 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 25. 27. 29. 28. 28. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/08/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)