* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 56 63 68 69 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 56 63 68 69 70 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 45 53 63 72 77 76 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 9 8 3 0 3 7 7 13 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 2 1 8 9 3 0 7 7 7 1 SHEAR DIR 67 69 59 94 106 76 347 295 283 268 224 233 232 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 129 129 128 125 126 131 136 138 141 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 128 128 126 123 124 130 135 136 138 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 8 7 8 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 52 53 50 45 43 42 41 38 38 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 25 16 9 8 5 13 14 21 10 7 -8 5 200 MB DIV -23 -23 -27 -19 -14 -38 -21 9 17 10 -1 -5 3 700-850 TADV -8 -11 -14 -11 -6 -8 -8 -7 -8 -3 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1695 1809 1806 1798 1769 1563 1348 1128 952 835 776 757 619 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.0 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.9 34.2 35.4 36.7 38.0 40.5 43.0 45.6 48.0 50.1 52.0 54.0 55.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 11 19 23 21 24 28 20 21 25 32 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 31. 38. 43. 44. 45. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/08/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/08/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)