* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 06/19/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 45 53 57 60 58 56 53 47 39 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 45 53 57 60 58 56 53 47 39 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 49 51 52 52 51 51 52 53 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 14 16 13 16 12 11 20 10 20 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 -4 -7 -6 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 292 357 360 334 288 263 267 298 291 259 267 286 272 SST (C) 22.5 22.7 22.6 21.7 21.4 19.6 17.8 15.7 12.7 8.2 6.2 7.1 9.7 POT. INT. (KT) 88 89 91 89 89 82 75 69 65 63 62 62 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 77 81 81 82 76 69 65 63 61 61 61 61 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.6 -56.6 -56.8 -56.9 -57.7 -57.7 -56.3 -55.1 -54.1 -53.7 -54.5 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 41 40 42 45 60 59 61 59 55 46 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 17 18 21 19 19 17 16 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 44 48 59 94 97 90 105 98 67 66 66 200 MB DIV -28 2 -5 23 35 65 24 7 -6 -13 -39 -19 -19 700-850 TADV 4 5 -3 3 2 -1 14 2 -1 -2 -3 0 16 LAND (KM) 685 754 826 927 994 1096 1036 902 745 558 386 285 357 LAT (DEG N) 39.5 39.2 38.8 38.4 37.9 39.6 42.5 45.0 46.5 47.2 46.7 45.4 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 57.1 56.1 53.5 50.9 43.7 41.4 41.7 43.1 45.4 47.9 49.9 50.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 15 21 24 21 14 10 9 8 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 23. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 17. 20. 18. 16. 13. 7. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 06/19/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952012 INVEST 06/19/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 06/19/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)