* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 06/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 45 52 57 57 54 50 44 37 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 45 52 57 57 54 50 44 37 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 45 48 49 52 54 53 51 49 48 Storm Type EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 5 12 19 22 19 19 16 26 34 27 25 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -4 -1 -5 -2 2 3 -2 2 -2 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 225 287 360 18 2 289 246 270 292 277 270 276 353 SST (C) 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.6 22.7 21.4 20.4 18.6 16.5 15.4 14.6 14.1 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 88 85 86 89 91 87 85 78 73 70 67 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 72 74 77 80 79 78 73 69 66 63 62 62 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.0 -56.2 -56.1 -56.1 -55.4 -56.2 -56.8 -56.9 -56.1 -53.8 -53.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 1 1 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 41 36 36 38 42 51 58 68 66 51 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 18 19 23 22 20 18 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 38 35 49 61 104 156 177 142 128 132 63 -1 200 MB DIV 16 -28 -9 7 39 9 60 27 22 30 15 -1 -23 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 1 5 7 1 4 2 -10 -30 -31 -7 LAND (KM) 684 672 661 732 807 968 1112 1194 1199 1199 1199 1097 944 LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.6 39.7 39.4 39.0 38.0 38.0 40.3 43.5 46.3 48.2 49.2 49.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.4 58.3 58.1 57.1 56.1 52.3 46.4 41.2 38.5 37.1 36.7 38.0 40.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 5 8 12 19 23 20 17 12 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 20. 23. 24. 22. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 17. 17. 14. 10. 4. -3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 06/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952012 INVEST 06/19/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 06/19/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)