* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 06/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 54 55 54 56 59 61 60 55 48 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 54 55 54 56 59 61 60 55 48 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 50 53 56 58 59 60 59 57 55 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 29 30 17 7 13 14 19 25 27 11 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -8 -8 -3 -4 -4 1 -4 0 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 215 216 236 218 217 11 21 271 226 224 269 289 270 SST (C) 22.7 23.1 23.1 22.7 22.3 22.9 22.7 21.5 21.0 19.8 17.7 16.1 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 92 92 91 88 84 90 91 88 88 83 76 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 78 74 72 77 80 81 82 77 70 67 64 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.3 -56.7 -56.9 -57.3 -56.7 -56.4 -55.7 -56.0 -56.4 -57.0 -56.5 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 50 45 41 40 30 34 46 61 60 60 70 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 15 14 15 18 19 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 39 36 43 30 36 25 50 62 116 152 141 113 93 200 MB DIV 61 36 44 39 1 -34 31 58 59 50 41 5 17 700-850 TADV 12 0 0 0 -1 6 -2 2 -4 -7 -5 1 0 LAND (KM) 784 697 620 607 596 679 867 1160 1281 1294 1250 1225 1225 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 38.0 39.0 39.4 39.7 39.1 37.7 36.0 35.8 38.2 41.5 44.3 46.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.9 61.5 61.1 60.8 60.4 59.7 58.3 54.7 48.1 42.3 39.2 37.7 36.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 8 4 3 7 12 21 26 23 17 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 14. 16. 19. 21. 20. 15. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 06/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952012 INVEST 06/18/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 06/18/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)