* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 06/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 42 45 46 41 34 29 27 25 20 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 42 45 46 41 34 29 27 25 20 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 35 39 43 45 44 41 39 38 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 33 33 31 33 18 10 22 22 29 23 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -3 -1 -5 -10 -4 -5 3 -4 -2 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 215 216 214 221 229 212 21 47 48 39 22 12 347 SST (C) 22.8 22.6 22.8 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.8 22.7 22.1 22.1 22.8 22.7 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 93 92 92 91 90 85 88 89 88 90 95 96 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 82 80 78 73 75 77 78 82 89 90 85 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.8 -57.3 -56.9 -56.3 -57.3 -56.8 -56.9 -55.9 -56.2 -55.9 -56.1 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 62 62 56 50 46 44 33 34 40 50 52 54 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 19 18 17 15 15 13 10 10 14 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 55 37 48 40 38 26 7 23 24 18 0 -19 -39 200 MB DIV 47 58 46 47 53 -4 -34 -21 8 10 14 8 21 700-850 TADV 4 0 5 9 2 0 5 0 5 7 -1 3 -4 LAND (KM) 1104 980 831 751 685 655 705 849 1071 1363 1634 1838 1982 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.9 36.4 37.4 38.4 39.3 39.0 37.8 36.0 34.0 32.2 31.8 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.5 63.0 62.4 61.7 60.9 59.8 59.2 58.6 57.4 54.7 49.9 43.8 37.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 14 12 9 4 5 8 12 18 23 27 28 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 17 CX,CY: 10/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -5. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 11. 4. -1. -3. -5. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 06/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952012 INVEST 06/18/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 06/18/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)