* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 41 42 40 37 34 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 41 42 40 37 34 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 36 34 30 28 28 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 50 51 45 52 47 30 18 11 17 28 23 18 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -5 0 -4 -5 -2 -1 -3 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 238 235 228 223 223 218 208 318 315 360 351 357 319 SST (C) 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.3 25.2 24.0 23.1 22.5 22.0 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 112 108 105 102 100 105 105 97 90 86 84 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 101 95 91 86 84 89 91 84 78 74 73 75 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -53.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 5 7 5 8 5 10 6 10 700-500 MB RH 54 53 57 55 54 56 56 58 58 56 57 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 12 12 16 16 14 13 10 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -22 -19 9 -4 5 6 -8 -17 -54 -29 0 15 200 MB DIV 119 77 70 84 51 22 32 2 -8 1 26 0 37 700-850 TADV 25 9 5 4 -6 1 -4 2 -3 0 4 4 16 LAND (KM) 153 212 295 351 413 408 359 239 64 -93 -179 -200 -171 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.7 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.9 31.8 32.5 33.1 33.5 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 78.1 77.6 77.2 76.7 76.8 77.4 78.7 80.3 81.8 82.4 82.3 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 10 7 3 1 5 7 8 5 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 16 CX,CY: 9/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -16. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -10. -16. -22. -23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/25/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/25/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/25/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)