* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/24/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 39 41 43 42 40 39 36 31 26 21 18 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 40 39 37 37 34 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 32 28 26 27 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 49 57 52 41 48 33 19 13 7 20 16 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 -1 -8 -4 -5 -1 0 -2 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 240 234 236 233 229 234 212 268 301 329 348 344 345 SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.2 25.9 25.3 24.6 24.3 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 117 113 108 108 110 112 110 105 99 96 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 110 103 97 91 90 93 95 94 90 85 82 80 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -52.3 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 49 49 47 50 51 59 60 58 56 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 12 10 11 14 15 15 16 13 11 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 -22 -18 15 -9 34 10 12 -20 -19 -43 -3 200 MB DIV 109 102 67 60 81 33 15 9 -3 -10 0 23 32 700-850 TADV 25 21 2 4 4 3 0 -3 0 -2 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 0 8 67 122 169 159 107 48 3 -32 -68 -86 -91 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.6 27.8 28.5 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.8 29.5 30.4 30.9 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.4 80.1 79.7 79.4 79.0 79.0 79.5 80.1 80.8 81.5 82.1 82.4 82.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 10 7 3 2 3 3 4 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 9 8 14 13 15 15 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -14. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/24/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 49.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/24/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/24/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)