* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * INVEST AL942012 05/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 41 44 46 49 46 42 31 30 21 25 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 6 3 -3 0 -3 1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 267 260 242 234 229 224 247 263 284 310 312 339 343 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.3 25.5 24.2 23.3 23.0 22.9 23.3 24.3 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 129 119 110 99 91 88 88 91 98 103 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 125 119 109 100 87 80 76 76 80 84 87 86 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 5 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 51 49 53 54 56 59 55 61 57 59 56 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -5 14 14 -20 14 -5 14 -1 -7 -24 -20 -47 200 MB DIV 105 102 126 124 96 94 10 -3 -6 -17 0 -8 -23 700-850 TADV 19 32 26 28 19 14 12 7 -3 -4 -8 -2 -2 LAND (KM) -30 72 87 160 262 491 621 631 592 499 387 302 243 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.7 25.0 26.3 27.5 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.7 31.1 31.4 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 80.5 79.6 78.6 77.5 75.6 74.1 73.3 73.3 74.3 75.7 76.9 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 13 9 6 2 3 6 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 31 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -6. -16. -23. -27. -29. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -14. -18. -22. -23. -24. -25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/24/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/24/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)