* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/24/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 33 32 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 31 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 30 29 28 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 46 48 54 50 50 56 38 37 36 33 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 -2 4 0 -6 -6 -6 -1 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 269 266 258 241 235 235 230 242 261 281 292 320 306 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.8 25.7 24.7 24.3 24.4 24.3 24.1 24.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 134 131 123 111 101 97 97 95 96 97 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 125 121 112 98 88 84 84 82 83 84 87 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 51 48 47 47 48 47 52 53 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 9 9 11 12 14 16 16 13 11 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 17 0 -3 17 13 -11 9 43 48 49 27 0 -6 200 MB DIV 92 89 88 92 77 61 24 10 -4 -4 -20 -2 -6 700-850 TADV 10 22 21 21 16 6 -1 -5 -7 -6 -8 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 147 11 22 47 17 217 411 476 535 575 545 483 420 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.2 23.4 24.8 26.1 28.1 28.6 28.0 27.4 27.5 28.1 28.8 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.6 82.1 81.5 80.8 80.0 78.2 76.3 75.4 74.7 74.3 74.7 75.6 76.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 14 15 14 10 6 5 3 1 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 34 41 35 22 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -23. -30. -36. -39. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -9. -14. -22. -28. -31. -33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/24/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/24/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/24/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)