* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 05/23/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 26 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 22 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 36 32 40 51 61 60 44 42 30 25 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 8 3 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 256 254 244 246 228 234 240 250 257 261 261 279 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.5 26.3 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.8 26.4 25.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 142 135 132 118 110 104 106 111 118 113 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 131 125 121 107 96 87 90 97 103 101 107 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 56 55 51 50 51 49 52 48 46 39 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 5 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 25 11 15 17 -7 0 -48 -20 -36 -8 -29 -34 -55 200 MB DIV 89 83 97 91 90 96 67 50 2 -8 7 -15 -14 700-850 TADV 5 14 11 5 13 15 6 0 -4 -9 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 235 142 21 -4 122 80 243 343 317 195 -10 31 262 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.0 21.9 23.0 24.1 26.9 29.1 30.0 29.4 28.5 27.7 27.3 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 82.4 81.8 81.1 80.4 79.3 78.2 77.5 77.5 78.6 80.5 82.9 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 14 13 9 2 4 8 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 39 47 22 35 18 0 0 0 3 0 1 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -9. -21. -31. -37. -39. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -7. -15. -22. -26. -28. -26. -28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 05/23/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942012 INVEST 05/23/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 05/23/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)