* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/23/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 34 34 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 34 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 30 32 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 23 24 30 28 22 20 22 20 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -6 -4 -2 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 204 210 220 231 236 249 250 265 273 295 287 316 1 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 118 118 118 118 119 122 126 130 133 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 107 107 106 105 106 107 110 113 115 116 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -54.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 48 48 47 43 44 42 47 49 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 9 10 9 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 16 9 -1 -1 0 -15 -18 -17 -34 -26 -56 -60 -89 200 MB DIV 6 15 4 11 19 24 23 11 12 0 -18 -2 -15 700-850 TADV 6 1 1 5 6 2 2 -3 -2 -2 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 2243 2339 2378 2356 2340 2303 2144 2011 1906 1809 1727 1675 1643 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.5 28.4 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.7 39.7 40.6 41.6 42.5 44.4 46.2 47.8 49.2 50.6 52.1 53.5 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 5 5 6 6 7 11 15 16 15 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/23/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 08/23/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/23/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)