* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 10/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 20 25 32 43 51 59 67 76 82 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 20 25 32 43 51 59 67 76 82 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 18 19 22 25 30 37 46 56 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 16 12 10 2 2 3 3 1 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -1 -4 -6 -3 1 3 2 2 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 123 118 126 133 139 157 181 72 6 100 253 114 168 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 148 147 147 147 153 158 160 158 159 161 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 146 144 145 147 155 163 163 161 160 158 160 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 11 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 60 58 58 58 57 63 65 64 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR 54 44 42 34 27 30 40 37 50 43 40 54 52 200 MB DIV 12 11 12 25 38 31 3 -1 28 31 24 31 33 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 7 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 392 436 498 426 367 263 288 325 217 137 320 333 266 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.7 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 55.8 56.2 56.5 57.3 58.1 60.1 62.7 65.7 68.6 71.4 74.1 76.4 78.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 9 9 9 11 14 15 14 14 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 49 59 67 69 51 61 57 46 83 114 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 4. 6. 4. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 12. 23. 31. 39. 47. 56. 62. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 10/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 10/22/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 10/22/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)