* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/11/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 29 25 21 20 19 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 29 25 21 20 19 19 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 18 19 20 23 25 27 SHEAR (KT) 46 47 39 41 40 32 27 23 25 25 36 47 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -1 2 4 0 0 -5 -1 2 3 7 1 SHEAR DIR 217 225 225 227 236 248 263 276 265 258 221 223 221 SST (C) 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.1 25.9 25.3 23.9 23.9 22.8 21.5 10.2 4.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 115 114 115 113 108 98 100 95 89 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 104 102 100 100 97 94 87 90 86 82 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -54.7 -54.9 -53.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 4 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 63 59 63 63 58 59 59 62 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 7 -5 1 -7 -24 -11 8 39 121 165 169 146 200 MB DIV 17 13 22 19 61 5 37 15 47 74 77 69 49 700-850 TADV 7 9 14 6 8 5 10 17 16 34 7 37 31 LAND (KM) 249 263 302 382 450 402 404 551 816 789 608 312 52 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.9 27.9 28.9 29.8 31.4 32.6 33.5 34.6 36.7 40.1 44.0 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 77.5 77.2 76.7 76.2 75.0 73.0 70.4 67.0 62.8 58.5 54.9 52.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 18 22 24 22 20 HEAT CONTENT 9 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -4. -5. -6. -6. -9. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/11/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/11/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/11/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)