* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 08/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 55 65 70 74 73 73 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 55 65 70 74 73 73 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 40 48 58 67 72 73 70 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 12 9 5 1 5 16 20 23 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 3 -1 0 -3 1 2 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 75 83 68 58 69 113 226 299 284 299 301 312 335 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 121 119 120 125 130 134 135 139 142 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 119 120 118 119 124 129 132 131 132 133 135 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 72 66 60 51 43 40 44 51 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 98 93 83 86 91 100 76 57 18 -6 -17 -39 -70 200 MB DIV 33 69 91 58 45 19 27 10 8 27 27 25 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 -6 0 5 8 0 8 -2 8 0 4 LAND (KM) 1444 1534 1627 1764 1904 1904 1738 1610 1569 1406 1113 933 843 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.4 16.5 17.7 19.0 20.6 21.8 23.2 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 30.6 31.6 32.5 33.9 35.2 38.2 41.7 45.4 49.1 52.5 55.7 58.4 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 17 18 19 18 17 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 6 4 3 4 15 23 38 33 44 33 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 30. 40. 45. 49. 49. 48. 44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 08/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 08/10/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)