* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/02/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 112 107 99 77 53 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 114 112 107 99 77 53 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 107 97 82 60 49 43 38 36 36 34 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 17 15 14 19 29 50 45 34 41 54 61 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 0 5 9 10 2 0 5 11 21 24 N/A SHEAR DIR 223 234 246 219 223 242 267 274 270 291 305 314 N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.5 26.5 23.8 18.8 12.1 14.2 14.4 14.2 14.4 14.3 14.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 135 124 103 82 72 74 73 72 72 71 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 123 113 94 77 70 71 70 69 69 68 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.9 -52.4 -53.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 58 58 55 57 47 34 27 37 41 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 24 24 27 22 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -4 19 0 -55 -78 -19 59 31 -49 -32 11 N/A 200 MB DIV 87 98 115 139 115 22 -7 8 -30 0 -13 -33 N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 37 29 28 13 -8 19 -132 -88 -66 -51 N/A LAND (KM) 1234 1011 795 599 365 62 710 1329 1193 653 199 79 N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 34.9 37.1 39.8 42.5 46.6 48.5 49.5 50.1 50.8 51.2 51.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.4 61.9 61.3 60.0 58.6 52.3 43.3 34.8 27.1 19.5 12.8 7.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 26 29 29 31 30 27 25 23 20 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 22 CX,CY: 4/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -9. -16. -32. -48. -62. -74. -83. -87. -88. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -12. -9. -6. -7. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. -1. -4. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -8. -16. -38. -62. -83. -95.-105.-115.-123.-120. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -7.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 21( 62) 6( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)