* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/27/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 37 45 51 56 60 63 66 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 37 45 51 56 60 63 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 33 37 43 50 56 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 16 14 17 17 3 6 7 15 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 -5 -3 -1 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 231 218 212 208 227 202 218 265 264 252 259 229 232 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.9 27.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 137 138 139 138 136 134 130 138 138 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 121 119 122 125 122 120 119 119 125 124 113 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 9 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 47 49 52 51 50 53 55 58 60 64 67 71 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 15 19 20 20 20 20 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -37 -26 -20 -18 -7 3 13 1 -15 -23 17 13 200 MB DIV 13 18 27 15 -15 28 7 20 22 50 68 113 69 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 0 2 4 5 4 10 18 48 24 LAND (KM) 628 616 604 604 604 590 608 639 715 925 1289 1193 987 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 6 6 6 9 14 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 57 56 55 54 53 43 39 41 29 16 16 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/27/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)