* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 52 51 50 48 48 48 46 45 43 43 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 52 51 50 48 48 48 46 45 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 49 49 49 48 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 16 17 20 19 21 18 22 26 23 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 6 2 0 0 3 4 2 -2 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 218 212 209 204 219 242 231 241 227 237 214 228 249 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 140 143 144 142 146 146 143 141 142 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 136 139 141 141 138 141 141 134 131 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 58 54 53 51 50 49 45 48 45 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 19 21 19 17 15 14 13 13 12 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 59 63 65 64 65 56 41 26 25 7 7 200 MB DIV 63 67 82 81 64 41 27 40 41 16 10 22 19 700-850 TADV -6 4 6 16 6 9 8 6 1 4 -1 3 2 LAND (KM) 1238 1164 1105 1061 1019 998 861 786 656 442 365 401 488 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.9 15.9 16.9 17.9 19.2 20.6 21.9 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 45.4 46.7 48.0 49.3 50.5 52.8 55.0 57.3 59.5 61.6 63.2 64.7 66.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 31 36 46 56 63 63 67 65 57 55 60 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/22/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/22/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)