* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/10/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 56 57 56 58 57 58 59 61 63 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 56 57 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 53 58 68 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 2 2 4 8 12 16 18 13 12 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 4 0 2 3 0 0 -5 -4 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 145 27 75 94 6 61 120 128 131 138 104 123 111 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 165 165 164 165 166 163 162 160 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 148 147 148 150 152 152 148 145 140 142 144 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 7 8 6 6 5 7 8 10 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 53 51 52 56 63 65 65 65 62 57 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 14 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 16 14 7 9 17 -11 -23 -27 -30 -11 -6 9 200 MB DIV 31 29 43 60 42 19 -3 2 -13 3 -11 15 27 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 -2 -1 12 10 4 3 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 173 180 153 137 120 26 -134 -263 -225 -163 -167 -186 -168 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.4 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 93.4 93.9 94.4 94.8 95.1 96.1 97.7 99.0 100.1 101.1 101.2 101.2 101.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 4 6 7 6 5 3 0 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 34 40 42 43 17 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 11. 13. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/10/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/10/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/10/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)