* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 47 48 54 52 51 52 54 55 57 57 V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 47 48 54 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 43 45 48 55 62 42 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 6 5 5 1 5 9 13 15 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 0 3 5 4 0 -3 -5 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 95 137 180 173 117 84 119 121 133 121 144 134 147 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 165 167 169 169 168 166 166 164 164 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 147 150 151 153 153 151 152 149 149 142 143 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 3 6 6 7 5 8 8 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 50 52 54 52 51 52 55 56 59 61 60 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 17 15 15 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 5 10 9 -1 5 -15 -22 -23 -19 -9 3 200 MB DIV 29 30 30 37 39 16 29 -22 -22 -6 7 0 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 2 1 -3 10 11 2 2 0 3 LAND (KM) 156 174 192 214 213 147 27 -95 -233 -258 -153 -100 -77 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.7 19.3 18.9 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.0 93.3 93.8 94.2 95.2 96.4 97.7 99.1 100.3 101.5 102.3 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 31 34 39 50 11 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -7. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 3. 9. 7. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/09/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)