* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/08/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 48 55 58 62 61 59 59 57 49 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 48 55 58 62 61 59 59 57 49 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 45 48 55 61 65 66 65 63 62 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 11 5 9 12 14 15 22 12 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 0 0 1 -1 0 1 -1 -4 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 74 67 97 131 123 168 186 204 214 188 150 200 194 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 162 164 169 169 169 169 168 168 168 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 141 142 144 152 157 160 159 156 152 147 143 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.1 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 50 48 40 42 41 44 49 45 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 16 17 17 19 18 20 21 21 22 21 15 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 27 24 30 31 2 -5 -15 2 -5 7 6 200 MB DIV 41 9 14 20 33 78 21 17 26 40 -8 6 -24 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -4 -3 -5 0 0 5 6 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 200 178 157 162 168 222 310 377 352 285 194 112 51 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.3 23.6 23.4 23.4 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.2 92.0 92.0 92.0 92.4 93.1 93.7 94.3 95.0 95.9 96.7 97.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 41 43 34 49 66 73 75 57 66 72 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 18. 22. 21. 19. 19. 17. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/08/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/08/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/08/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)