* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132011 09/03/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 59 62 65 63 55 43 33 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 44 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 11 8 13 24 28 35 33 29 33 38 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 -3 -1 -3 -1 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 189 201 221 207 202 214 221 217 201 207 212 215 219 SST (C) 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.0 29.2 28.4 27.6 26.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 169 169 170 169 154 142 131 120 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 153 154 155 151 149 150 140 128 117 109 100 94 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.8 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -49.1 -49.1 -49.1 -48.9 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 4 3 6 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 61 63 53 43 34 35 36 39 41 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 27 25 25 24 27 26 22 15 12 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 34 46 44 83 104 129 129 111 110 74 73 63 132 200 MB DIV 102 90 57 49 60 46 51 52 -8 34 26 29 24 700-850 TADV 4 13 2 0 0 -7 -7 14 4 5 -5 7 1 LAND (KM) 45 22 2 -28 -69 -94 -114 -183 -301 -427 -440 -425 -398 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.9 31.4 32.3 33.3 34.3 35.2 36.5 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 92.1 92.1 92.0 91.9 91.7 90.9 89.8 88.5 87.1 85.6 84.0 82.2 80.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 3 49 46 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. -1. -5. -11. -14. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 13. 6. -7. -17. -27. -38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132011 LEE 09/03/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132011 LEE 09/03/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132011 LEE 09/03/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)