* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 58 51 47 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 58 51 47 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 61 55 49 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 58 66 66 62 55 49 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 1 4 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 246 242 228 219 203 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.9 17.8 15.3 14.1 13.8 13.5 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 82 78 75 73 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 78 75 72 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.9 -47.7 -47.1 -46.7 -46.2 -45.7 -44.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 52 53 44 39 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 34 33 34 33 33 38 36 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 172 164 181 212 248 278 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 -9 12 30 25 41 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -50 -49 -68 -165 -173 -32 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 724 1126 1509 1133 790 381 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.8 48.0 50.1 51.8 53.5 56.3 59.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.7 37.7 31.7 26.9 22.0 14.3 7.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 47 46 40 34 30 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 53 CX,CY: 48/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -27. -31. -34. -37. -38. -38. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -16. -21. -23. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -19. -22. -26. -30. -34. -38. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 6. 7. 8. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. -30. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -19. -23. -32. -45. -58. -72. -81. -91.-100.-104. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/10/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 61.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -1.5/ -2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/10/11 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/10/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED