* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102011 08/26/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 45 47 48 47 45 40 36 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 45 47 48 47 45 40 36 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 42 47 48 48 46 44 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 12 7 1 7 15 17 28 27 33 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 6 0 4 5 1 0 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 43 59 77 73 254 262 268 273 272 255 244 245 250 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 117 116 114 112 111 112 114 116 119 121 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 102 103 105 107 110 110 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 46 44 46 49 50 48 46 47 43 45 41 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 71 69 80 76 68 42 20 5 7 0 -24 -47 200 MB DIV 2 0 13 7 15 14 3 0 8 9 3 3 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 3 2 4 4 10 14 17 LAND (KM) 1721 1773 1825 1867 1911 2001 2076 2153 2238 2201 2116 2072 2075 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.8 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.4 20.5 21.0 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.0 34.5 34.9 35.3 36.1 36.7 37.5 38.5 39.8 41.2 42.7 44.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 5 8 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 17. 18. 17. 15. 10. 6. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102011 TEN 08/26/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102011 TEN 08/26/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)