* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/27/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 80 80 73 63 48 29 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 70 76 76 60 33 32 29 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 78 77 74 74 70 33 30 29 31 31 36 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 13 19 41 56 69 68 64 46 35 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -8 0 2 -1 6 1 -3 -6 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 235 215 198 187 185 203 196 205 217 224 237 255 266 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.6 23.5 17.0 15.5 10.1 8.9 9.0 10.2 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 137 130 121 98 76 74 69 68 68 69 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 120 116 110 104 87 72 71 68 67 67 68 68 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.6 -49.9 -49.0 -48.6 -49.4 -48.3 -48.4 -49.4 -50.6 -50.2 -49.6 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 5 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 56 56 50 47 53 51 50 50 52 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 42 39 40 41 41 42 39 31 25 24 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 83 72 87 105 116 115 127 122 98 132 148 189 168 200 MB DIV 81 84 104 129 107 147 125 70 66 70 38 31 27 700-850 TADV 17 0 0 13 1 -2 -62 -49 -56 -121 -89 -16 -12 LAND (KM) 139 48 -2 31 51 -21 -151 27 -197 358 830 1371 1144 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.4 35.4 36.6 37.7 40.9 44.9 49.2 53.6 56.6 58.1 58.9 59.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 76.3 76.0 75.5 74.9 73.3 70.8 66.7 61.3 54.2 45.9 36.3 26.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 11 12 15 20 24 27 26 24 24 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 36 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -16. -25. -31. -37. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -15. -16. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. -7. -17. -32. -51. -62. -69. -77. -81. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/27/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/27/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/27/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 5( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)