* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032011 07/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 46 42 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 46 42 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 47 45 40 35 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 21 24 25 15 21 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 -3 0 1 3 -1 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 294 360 350 340 322 325 308 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.6 21.1 19.7 17.7 14.7 13.4 12.5 13.1 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 87 83 79 73 71 70 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 79 77 74 70 69 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.6 -55.4 -55.0 -54.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 51 58 59 57 58 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 12 10 7 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -61 -81 -91 -36 -4 -22 -59 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 12 0 6 26 25 18 -11 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 24 24 25 9 10 34 30 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 806 875 995 1111 1268 1336 823 372 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.4 42.7 43.9 46.0 48.0 51.1 52.7 54.9 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.2 43.6 41.0 38.4 35.8 29.6 22.4 15.5 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 23 25 27 26 24 23 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 24 CX,CY: 15/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 896 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -8. -17. -24. -31. -40. -48. -53. -59. -63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032011 CINDY 07/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032011 CINDY 07/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032011 CINDY 07/21/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)