* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 11/04/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 31 33 34 35 33 33 31 32 36 42 47 51 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 31 33 34 35 33 33 31 32 36 42 47 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 24 24 26 26 25 23 21 20 19 18 17 17 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 5 7 11 15 16 16 13 15 20 21 9 7 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 4 1 1 -2 -5 -3 -3 -4 -1 -3 -1 -2 3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 77 42 21 344 301 270 262 258 251 222 219 229 243 248 233 255 268 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.1 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 157 155 155 157 157 159 155 158 156 154 151 152 151 156 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 70 72 72 73 70 72 69 70 63 61 55 51 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 101 89 80 65 53 41 19 34 38 62 60 84 89 76 64 68 200 MB DIV 64 63 58 50 28 33 4 -27 -12 27 3 -12 1 21 2 -1 31 700-850 TADV 1 5 3 1 4 7 5 8 4 4 0 0 1 5 5 0 4 LAND (KM) 2173 2073 1978 1875 1771 1560 1359 1161 999 852 760 728 749 786 844 959 1087 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.2 11.0 11.7 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.2 139.1 139.8 140.6 141.4 143.2 145.0 146.9 148.9 151.0 152.7 154.3 156.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 11 10 9 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 11 13 10 12 19 16 16 14 23 18 14 12 14 22 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 28. 34. 39. 42. 46. 49. 52. 53. 54. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -9. -10. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 8. 6. 7. 11. 17. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.4 138.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 11/04/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 6.9% 3.0% 1.3% 0.2% 1.9% 0.9% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.2% 5.9% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 4.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.6% 3.4% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 11/04/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##