* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 11/04/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 36 41 43 43 43 40 39 38 38 40 46 51 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 36 41 43 43 43 40 39 38 38 40 46 51 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 34 39 41 40 37 34 32 30 28 27 26 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 4 5 5 11 12 16 17 14 16 17 23 16 6 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 5 4 1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 86 76 39 23 337 282 256 262 249 238 216 222 237 248 231 240 257 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 156 158 157 157 158 159 158 158 159 155 156 152 153 156 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 76 76 73 71 70 71 72 71 70 69 70 65 62 56 54 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 101 101 90 79 59 43 30 28 34 57 61 78 87 87 72 69 200 MB DIV 51 64 63 58 51 26 38 -18 -35 4 29 -4 -13 6 26 -5 28 700-850 TADV 0 1 5 2 2 6 6 7 6 5 0 0 0 4 5 4 0 LAND (KM) 2258 2173 2076 1972 1877 1659 1440 1240 1055 904 785 736 736 775 832 908 1046 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.7 11.5 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.6 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.2 139.0 139.8 140.5 142.3 144.2 146.1 148.1 150.1 152.0 153.6 155.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 8 8 10 11 10 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 14 10 13 11 11 18 15 15 20 22 15 16 15 21 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47. 50. 51. 52. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 13. 13. 13. 10. 9. 8. 8. 10. 16. 21. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.2 137.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 11/04/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -3.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 6.7% 3.0% 1.3% 0.2% 2.2% 2.0% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 3.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 11/04/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##