* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 11/04/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 48 49 48 46 43 44 42 43 47 52 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 48 49 48 46 43 44 42 43 47 52 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 43 47 47 45 42 39 36 33 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 3 3 8 11 12 12 16 12 18 20 20 13 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 5 6 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 93 99 100 68 3 306 277 263 263 239 230 223 246 258 276 286 280 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 155 159 156 157 157 160 158 158 157 156 153 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 76 77 74 72 72 75 74 71 70 64 66 61 55 49 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 7 9 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 5 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR 93 103 107 109 100 65 46 39 26 39 39 52 58 64 62 52 51 200 MB DIV 48 56 83 71 67 34 33 11 -1 21 19 15 -4 -13 3 -12 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 3 3 4 1 4 4 8 2 2 1 4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2345 2267 2175 2087 1983 1766 1549 1338 1123 949 774 641 589 620 684 772 897 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.4 10.4 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.5 137.3 138.1 138.8 139.6 141.3 143.1 145.0 147.0 149.0 151.2 153.1 154.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 8 8 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 19 13 9 12 14 20 16 19 14 25 23 21 13 21 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 20. 28. 34. 38. 41. 44. 47. 49. 50. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -1. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 19. 18. 16. 13. 14. 12. 13. 17. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.1 136.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 11/04/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -9.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.2% 20.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 8.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 3.1% 1.9% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 10.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 8.1% 7.5% 2.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 8.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 5.0% 4.7% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 11/04/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##