* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 11/03/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 47 49 49 48 45 45 46 47 50 55 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 47 49 49 48 45 45 46 47 50 55 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 50 48 45 42 39 38 37 35 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 14 10 7 4 11 14 12 15 12 14 15 19 18 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 0 3 4 -1 -5 -5 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 84 82 90 91 69 345 278 261 269 241 228 223 240 239 273 241 246 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 156 154 154 157 156 157 158 157 158 157 158 157 155 154 151 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 73 77 76 73 70 70 72 72 70 67 66 61 60 52 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 89 102 110 111 86 49 37 31 28 33 31 44 68 72 75 81 200 MB DIV 68 44 62 64 57 41 18 38 13 4 -2 11 1 -8 -8 12 24 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 3 4 6 3 4 4 5 0 0 -1 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 2391 2303 2227 2135 2040 1841 1639 1428 1234 1068 915 788 720 698 714 739 812 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.2 10.2 11.0 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.0 136.9 137.6 138.4 139.1 140.6 142.3 144.1 145.9 147.6 149.5 151.3 152.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 18 16 10 13 11 14 17 17 14 15 22 18 14 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 20. 28. 34. 38. 41. 44. 47. 49. 50. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 18. 15. 15. 16. 17. 20. 25. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.1 136.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 11/03/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -7.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 6.6% 6.2% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 5.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 4.3% 4.6% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 11/03/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##