* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 11/03/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 43 49 52 54 53 53 54 55 57 60 63 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 43 49 52 54 53 53 54 55 57 60 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 40 46 49 49 48 47 46 45 45 44 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 12 12 6 8 11 10 13 10 9 13 10 8 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -4 -2 4 1 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 75 79 78 83 95 53 299 301 287 274 264 227 236 242 225 284 299 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 155 155 154 156 155 159 158 159 158 156 155 151 154 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 70 71 73 73 70 70 72 71 68 70 67 66 61 54 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 74 82 93 100 84 50 45 39 19 43 34 57 72 85 85 77 200 MB DIV 111 64 40 49 46 10 8 18 9 -3 20 13 12 -9 3 15 -15 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 1 3 7 5 0 -1 -2 1 -3 0 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 2406 2294 2192 2094 1993 1773 1550 1325 1119 929 794 676 637 692 775 866 957 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.3 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.2 137.1 137.9 138.8 140.6 142.5 144.6 146.6 148.6 150.7 152.8 154.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 9 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 14 12 8 11 14 15 15 18 16 22 20 15 16 14 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 28. 34. 38. 42. 45. 48. 50. 52. 54. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 24. 27. 29. 28. 28. 29. 31. 32. 35. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 135.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 11/03/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -23.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.11 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 11.8% 4.3% 2.4% 0.9% 4.4% 7.3% 15.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 0.9% 12.0% 7.2% 0.9% 0.3% 8.0% 8.4% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 11/03/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##