* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 08/31/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 63 72 80 81 81 79 80 77 75 76 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 63 72 80 81 81 79 80 77 75 76 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 36 41 48 55 59 60 60 60 59 57 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 9 4 7 7 9 16 9 3 1 3 2 7 16 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 0 4 1 -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 1 0 2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 358 322 328 328 299 359 356 18 13 36 298 57 91 218 263 255 244 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.8 27.1 27.6 26.9 27.1 26.5 25.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 161 160 157 158 153 146 140 133 139 132 133 127 112 93 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -50.0 -49.7 -49.2 -49.1 -49.0 -48.8 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 90 91 90 87 86 81 77 73 73 73 74 69 62 52 43 31 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 22 24 25 29 30 33 34 34 33 34 33 30 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 17 18 20 16 37 46 55 69 77 76 72 80 98 97 94 200 MB DIV 122 120 110 105 120 71 55 40 60 66 70 53 40 32 32 18 51 700-850 TADV -3 0 -3 -6 -7 -10 0 -2 -3 0 3 2 1 6 6 11 3 LAND (KM) 801 774 739 730 730 770 707 673 699 730 755 760 725 662 623 650 736 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 32 35 33 29 24 26 20 19 11 3 6 2 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. 23. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 12. 16. 22. 23. 23. 21. 20. 16. 12. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 33. 42. 50. 51. 51. 49. 50. 47. 45. 46. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 107.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 08/31/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -19.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.93 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.73 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.29 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 21.7% 17.5% 14.0% 0.0% 20.4% 22.8% 34.4% Logistic: 0.5% 12.0% 3.3% 1.6% 0.2% 6.7% 5.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% Consensus: 3.1% 11.9% 7.3% 5.3% 0.1% 9.1% 9.5% 12.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 12.0% 12.0% SDCON: 2.0% 12.4% 6.6% 3.1% 0.5% 6.0% 10.7% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 08/31/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##