* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 08/31/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 46 56 68 77 85 85 84 83 81 79 73 65 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 46 56 68 77 85 85 84 83 81 79 73 65 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 38 43 50 58 65 66 66 67 63 56 45 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 15 17 12 8 6 6 13 14 6 4 6 2 8 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 3 0 0 4 -5 -5 -2 -2 -4 0 0 8 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 8 356 338 332 336 337 357 15 26 32 19 221 266 133 241 222 247 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.5 28.1 27.4 27.6 26.9 27.0 27.0 25.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 162 162 161 157 158 155 148 144 136 139 131 132 131 121 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.6 -50.6 -51.1 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.6 -49.6 -49.4 -48.6 -49.2 -49.3 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 89 90 90 89 87 84 82 75 72 72 72 66 57 44 35 20 11 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 20 21 21 24 27 29 32 32 33 33 33 33 28 20 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 8 12 17 15 26 40 49 62 69 84 79 102 101 81 18 200 MB DIV 141 135 109 98 88 96 64 85 32 93 67 60 33 28 24 -3 18 700-850 TADV -6 -4 0 -5 -5 -7 -6 0 -3 1 0 3 3 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 875 852 824 797 778 800 757 684 713 768 787 788 740 706 701 693 712 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 7 6 6 8 7 5 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 28 30 30 24 26 21 19 16 6 7 2 4 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 25. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 13. 18. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. 19. 13. 5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 26. 38. 47. 55. 55. 54. 53. 51. 49. 43. 35. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 108.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 08/31/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.32 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -16.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.93 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 20.3% 15.6% 12.5% 0.0% 19.3% 20.1% 46.2% Logistic: 1.3% 17.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.3% 7.5% 17.4% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 2.1% 2.3% Consensus: 3.1% 13.7% 7.0% 4.9% 0.1% 9.3% 13.2% 18.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 13.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% 11.0% 12.0% SDCON: 3.0% 13.3% 6.0% 2.9% 0.5% 8.1% 12.1% 15.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 08/31/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##