* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 08/31/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 41 47 58 68 77 86 91 90 91 86 86 83 80 75 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 41 47 58 68 77 86 91 90 91 86 86 83 80 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 53 64 74 79 79 76 74 70 63 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 14 16 9 10 3 8 9 7 2 1 5 7 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 10 3 -2 1 -1 -6 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 0 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 359 3 4 352 336 339 354 331 8 38 42 315 200 110 173 186 171 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.2 28.1 27.2 27.1 27.7 25.8 25.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 159 159 161 161 160 154 146 144 134 132 141 122 116 97 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -50.3 -50.0 -49.6 -49.2 -49.0 -49.1 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 89 90 90 90 89 85 82 80 76 74 70 71 68 62 54 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 15 18 20 23 26 28 31 34 35 38 36 37 33 29 22 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 13 16 19 22 22 41 50 56 65 87 86 70 72 85 55 200 MB DIV 139 131 114 99 84 99 111 73 65 73 62 70 43 37 62 82 59 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 0 -3 -10 -7 0 -3 0 2 3 4 -1 3 1 4 LAND (KM) 831 841 838 801 773 737 738 658 592 601 623 649 621 497 256 118 54 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.8 16.0 17.3 18.5 19.7 20.6 21.3 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.0 108.5 108.9 109.2 110.0 111.0 112.0 113.2 114.7 116.1 117.2 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 7 5 4 10 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 26 26 31 28 26 31 16 11 8 3 1 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 27. 30. 31. 32. 27. 25. 19. 14. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 5. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 28. 38. 47. 56. 61. 61. 61. 56. 56. 53. 50. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 107.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 08/31/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -19.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.93 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.43 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 18.4% 14.2% 11.8% 0.0% 18.2% 18.4% 49.0% Logistic: 2.0% 20.7% 5.2% 2.9% 0.3% 8.1% 11.0% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.7% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 2.6% 2.4% 5.0% Consensus: 3.2% 14.2% 7.3% 5.1% 0.1% 9.6% 10.6% 20.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 25.0% 6.0% SDCON: 2.1% 13.1% 5.6% 3.0% 0.5% 7.8% 17.8% 13.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 08/31/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##