* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 08/31/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 48 55 67 74 81 86 90 91 93 90 85 80 72 58 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 48 55 67 74 81 86 90 91 93 90 85 80 72 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 48 54 62 72 84 91 93 87 79 68 53 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 16 10 15 14 11 4 5 9 14 5 3 5 16 32 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 9 10 5 1 2 -2 -7 -1 -5 -3 0 0 4 3 8 SHEAR DIR 331 338 353 1 334 337 357 328 19 7 25 27 82 207 176 181 170 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.5 28.0 28.0 27.9 26.5 24.9 22.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 162 160 161 161 159 156 148 144 144 143 129 114 93 97 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -49.9 -50.3 -49.6 -49.5 -48.5 -48.9 -48.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 2 700-500 MB RH 90 89 90 90 90 87 83 82 78 76 75 74 68 62 54 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 17 19 22 24 28 29 33 36 40 40 38 35 30 18 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 13 16 23 23 25 35 47 47 57 66 80 76 95 72 55 200 MB DIV 154 141 111 107 92 69 105 85 64 42 55 56 56 17 75 89 76 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -10 -5 -1 -8 -8 -6 -1 -3 3 0 5 5 10 6 -7 LAND (KM) 745 741 732 726 715 716 764 725 673 647 628 573 504 360 256 168 -40 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.9 21.2 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.1 107.7 108.4 109.0 110.1 111.3 112.4 113.3 114.2 115.2 116.1 116.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 12 15 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 26 35 34 28 28 32 20 16 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 11. 18. 22. 28. 31. 33. 30. 26. 21. 14. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 16. 8. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 18. 25. 37. 44. 51. 56. 60. 61. 63. 60. 55. 50. 42. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 106.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 08/31/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -23.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.93 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.76 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 31.6% 18.9% 14.5% 0.0% 21.2% 23.3% 53.5% Logistic: 8.5% 51.7% 19.5% 13.9% 1.8% 20.3% 15.6% 15.7% Bayesian: 3.0% 30.4% 21.0% 6.2% 0.1% 20.2% 11.1% 7.3% Consensus: 7.5% 37.9% 19.8% 11.5% 0.6% 20.6% 16.7% 25.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 19.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 7.0% 16.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.2% 28.4% 12.9% 6.2% 0.3% 13.8% 16.3% 13.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 08/31/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##