* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 08/30/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 50 60 67 71 78 85 90 92 96 94 91 88 82 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 44 50 60 67 71 78 85 90 92 96 94 91 88 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 51 57 68 81 91 95 93 86 75 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 24 26 20 17 12 9 9 8 13 14 4 5 5 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 3 4 5 4 5 -6 -3 -3 -2 -3 3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 352 343 349 1 4 353 343 352 333 17 356 350 350 58 183 178 175 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.1 25.4 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 161 162 159 160 159 161 159 155 151 149 145 135 118 97 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 -49.3 -49.0 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 90 91 91 91 91 89 86 84 82 79 80 77 76 71 66 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 13 18 22 23 26 30 34 36 40 41 39 36 30 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 16 18 18 19 18 15 24 31 52 62 68 78 79 86 99 200 MB DIV 106 134 116 108 82 71 102 108 97 79 70 77 57 40 72 73 63 700-850 TADV 2 2 -2 -6 -4 -3 -6 -9 -2 -3 1 0 8 10 12 13 13 LAND (KM) 758 735 738 738 726 717 755 802 811 718 609 530 489 454 389 256 199 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.9 18.2 19.8 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.6 107.2 107.8 108.4 109.4 110.4 111.3 112.1 112.5 113.0 113.9 115.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 9 10 10 7 10 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 24 27 35 31 26 26 32 31 17 12 4 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 22. 27. 31. 32. 34. 31. 27. 21. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 6. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 20. 30. 37. 41. 48. 55. 60. 62. 66. 64. 61. 58. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 106.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 08/30/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.15 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -29.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.94 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.70 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 3.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.65 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 22.8% 16.3% 12.6% 0.0% 18.2% 17.8% 28.0% Logistic: 6.7% 35.8% 7.3% 4.9% 1.9% 8.7% 8.5% 14.8% Bayesian: 2.1% 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 4.2% Consensus: 6.3% 22.4% 7.9% 5.8% 0.6% 9.2% 8.9% 15.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 08/30/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##