* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 10/21/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 44 53 64 85 95 101 96 92 90 84 85 83 79 77 77 V (KT) LAND 30 36 44 53 64 85 95 101 96 92 90 84 85 83 79 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 44 52 74 97 108 101 90 84 78 75 73 69 67 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 2 1 4 3 10 16 13 14 3 2 4 6 8 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -6 -5 -3 3 6 3 7 2 6 5 16 16 6 0 SHEAR DIR 109 88 81 93 71 38 244 210 226 227 270 238 225 324 274 215 243 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 159 157 158 156 154 154 153 153 155 156 156 155 155 154 152 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -50.5 -51.0 -50.7 -51.5 -50.8 -51.4 -50.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 82 80 82 83 82 81 78 75 74 73 70 68 68 72 76 78 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 17 20 25 29 33 32 33 36 36 39 39 37 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 25 33 31 36 40 51 43 50 48 51 40 43 14 18 -2 -4 -11 200 MB DIV 89 83 108 98 88 123 186 253 169 144 94 64 66 53 58 66 62 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 1 4 6 7 10 7 9 LAND (KM) 732 742 757 761 766 723 725 702 627 556 498 441 370 326 315 260 172 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 23 15 12 0 0 2 13 19 27 29 26 20 16 16 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 37. 39. 40. 40. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 24. 25. 27. 30. 27. 28. 26. 22. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 23. 34. 55. 65. 71. 66. 62. 60. 54. 55. 53. 49. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.5 99.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 10/21/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 13.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.96 12.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -10.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 5.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.57 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 73% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 54.2% 39.6% 26.9% 0.0% 51.8% 73.5% 47.8% Logistic: 22.7% 80.3% 56.5% 45.5% 32.5% 55.5% 65.8% 37.3% Bayesian: 7.3% 38.4% 33.9% 12.9% 8.3% 11.4% 5.9% 11.9% Consensus: 14.4% 57.6% 43.3% 28.4% 13.6% 39.6% 48.4% 32.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 10/21/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##