* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 08/27/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 44 48 55 64 73 79 83 89 94 97 96 94 92 89 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 44 48 55 64 73 79 83 89 94 97 96 94 92 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 58 65 72 80 86 90 92 92 91 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 13 11 8 13 10 11 9 4 4 2 6 4 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 11 10 6 -1 0 1 2 9 11 7 2 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 86 77 73 70 58 61 60 87 60 110 66 111 48 137 128 138 127 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 154 154 154 154 154 153 151 153 151 151 151 151 148 143 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 63 61 60 60 65 65 64 59 60 58 59 56 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 14 14 15 15 15 17 17 18 19 21 22 23 23 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 31 39 51 58 67 81 89 111 117 127 100 87 83 84 82 87 83 200 MB DIV 93 72 46 44 38 42 59 75 38 72 38 39 50 54 67 60 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 2368 2403 2439 2445 2451 2386 2254 2129 2008 1889 1761 1658 1590 1517 1454 1403 1399 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 2 2 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 18 18 20 24 23 23 19 20 24 23 22 26 28 24 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 11. 13. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 18. 25. 34. 43. 49. 53. 59. 64. 67. 66. 64. 62. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 134.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 08/27/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.92 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 18.9% 13.8% 11.5% 0.0% 17.4% 17.0% 20.5% Logistic: 8.5% 32.2% 13.4% 7.4% 0.5% 1.3% 0.2% 1.5% Bayesian: 6.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 17.6% 9.2% 6.3% 0.2% 6.4% 6.1% 7.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.9% 13.3% 7.6% 3.6% 0.6% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 08/27/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##