* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 08/27/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 44 51 61 69 76 82 86 90 93 92 90 88 85 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 44 51 61 69 76 82 86 90 93 92 90 88 85 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 32 35 38 44 49 53 59 66 73 79 82 83 83 81 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 10 12 14 11 14 11 12 7 5 2 3 4 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 7 8 10 4 0 0 -1 2 7 10 11 9 4 6 6 SHEAR DIR 24 35 58 61 52 57 55 72 65 76 92 65 85 105 96 128 117 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 157 157 156 157 155 155 151 151 151 150 147 145 147 148 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 64 66 63 64 68 66 62 60 57 58 57 55 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 11 14 14 14 15 16 17 18 20 21 22 21 21 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 21 30 33 47 49 56 74 87 123 121 104 84 85 76 84 72 69 200 MB DIV 83 93 81 55 56 49 34 70 50 31 21 35 49 78 72 84 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 2353 2358 2382 2407 2422 2419 2352 2222 2074 1920 1810 1746 1717 1669 1642 1634 1664 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.7 12.3 13.0 13.4 13.5 13.3 13.2 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.8 134.7 134.4 134.1 133.9 133.7 134.1 135.1 136.4 137.9 139.1 139.8 140.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 3 3 5 6 7 6 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 17 17 18 21 21 24 19 24 24 23 21 18 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 36. 39. 41. 41. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 26. 36. 44. 51. 57. 61. 65. 68. 67. 65. 63. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 134.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 08/27/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.73 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 18.0% 52.7% 27.9% 18.9% 1.8% 3.1% 0.6% 3.0% Bayesian: 4.9% 4.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 26.1% 15.3% 6.5% 0.6% 7.2% 6.1% 1.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.3% 20.0% 11.1% 3.7% 0.8% 4.6% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 08/27/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##