* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 08/27/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 40 46 54 61 69 79 84 87 90 90 90 86 84 81 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 40 46 54 61 69 79 84 87 90 90 90 86 84 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 35 39 47 52 59 68 76 81 83 82 81 80 78 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 8 11 12 11 11 11 14 12 7 3 0 4 5 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 5 6 6 2 2 1 4 7 11 11 9 8 9 8 SHEAR DIR 69 45 47 73 62 37 46 48 85 79 99 70 102 102 195 137 102 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 157 157 154 155 156 154 153 150 149 148 149 147 146 146 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 63 64 63 65 66 70 67 63 62 60 59 57 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 11 13 15 14 15 19 20 21 23 22 23 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 24 32 46 57 74 97 114 119 115 92 77 77 89 84 79 200 MB DIV 58 77 84 55 61 43 45 43 77 44 63 58 49 74 91 117 86 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2348 2358 2372 2402 2422 2457 2433 2346 2210 2077 1977 1932 1894 1853 1825 1841 1913 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.8 134.6 134.4 134.1 133.9 133.5 133.6 134.2 135.3 136.5 137.5 138.0 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 6 6 4 2 2 4 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 18 19 22 17 19 20 20 21 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 39. 40. 41. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 10. 17. 18. 19. 20. 17. 16. 14. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 21. 29. 36. 44. 54. 59. 62. 65. 65. 65. 61. 59. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 134.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 08/27/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.70 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 31.7% 13.1% 8.4% 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 18.2% 10.1% 2.9% 0.3% 6.4% 5.6% 0.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 21.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.7% 19.6% 9.0% 1.9% 0.1% 4.7% 4.3% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 08/27/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##