* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 08/27/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 37 48 57 69 75 81 85 88 91 92 90 85 83 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 37 48 57 69 75 81 85 88 91 92 90 85 83 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 27 33 38 44 50 57 64 70 75 78 79 76 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 1 6 8 12 11 11 12 12 14 6 6 6 5 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 6 6 9 2 3 4 4 6 11 12 4 7 7 3 SHEAR DIR 70 84 61 80 77 58 54 57 75 88 87 80 47 63 101 153 137 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 157 156 154 154 155 154 152 150 150 151 151 149 147 137 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 60 62 62 63 65 68 69 65 65 64 62 60 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 9 12 15 15 17 16 18 20 22 24 25 25 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 14 24 29 51 64 82 105 110 112 114 95 85 76 84 85 200 MB DIV 50 64 80 92 77 53 42 33 70 50 42 68 72 74 80 116 81 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 2328 2338 2348 2363 2383 2408 2404 2336 2204 2096 2006 2005 2031 2069 2101 2168 2273 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.7 12.9 12.9 12.7 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.0 134.8 134.6 134.4 134.2 133.9 133.8 134.3 135.4 136.4 137.3 137.4 137.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 5 6 5 3 1 2 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 16 15 14 16 18 18 21 19 19 20 22 25 22 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. 45. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 28. 37. 49. 55. 61. 65. 68. 71. 72. 70. 65. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.9 135.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 08/27/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.79 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.39 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 45.3% 21.6% 14.0% 1.6% 1.7% 0.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 15.5% 7.3% 4.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.9% 13.7% 5.6% 2.3% 0.2% 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 08/27/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##