* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 08/26/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 33 44 55 67 73 83 84 87 84 80 77 74 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 33 44 55 67 73 83 84 87 84 80 77 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 33 37 42 49 55 59 58 53 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 7 4 5 11 10 10 13 10 21 15 15 19 20 24 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 3 11 7 4 5 0 2 11 12 10 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 49 62 71 345 328 75 44 47 57 78 56 92 106 129 116 123 118 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.6 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 158 156 155 153 153 154 152 154 154 156 153 151 142 145 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 63 65 64 67 70 73 72 71 71 70 67 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 11 13 14 16 16 21 20 21 21 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 10 2 9 8 16 38 63 81 75 110 127 131 116 144 167 156 148 200 MB DIV 48 41 51 71 73 40 72 77 69 72 62 58 49 51 60 94 82 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -6 -2 0 -3 -2 -1 -4 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 2349 2378 2397 2422 2446 2491 2537 2542 2499 2476 2477 2448 2292 2098 1889 1644 1442 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.7 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.0 134.6 134.3 134.0 133.7 133.2 132.7 132.6 132.9 133.0 132.9 132.1 131.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 0 3 6 8 9 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 15 17 19 20 17 16 23 18 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 43. 45. 47. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -0. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 19. 17. 17. 15. 12. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 13. 24. 35. 47. 53. 63. 64. 67. 64. 60. 57. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 135.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 08/26/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.56 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -23.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.10 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 15.3% 4.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 08/26/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##