* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 10/13/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 41 54 69 78 82 78 73 71 68 65 64 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 41 54 69 78 82 78 73 71 68 65 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 43 52 58 60 57 55 52 50 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 4 5 2 3 3 6 3 5 4 6 11 11 13 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 8 3 1 2 0 1 5 9 5 1 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 190 165 130 129 131 109 63 37 65 147 160 182 174 177 194 201 203 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.7 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.6 30.3 31.1 31.6 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 165 164 162 149 146 148 148 153 154 156 160 167 169 169 169 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 82 80 77 75 76 72 73 71 68 63 60 55 50 45 45 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 14 15 16 17 20 23 24 25 21 16 14 12 9 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 37 36 33 36 32 63 58 42 17 9 5 17 32 31 42 200 MB DIV 79 70 61 42 40 52 64 76 32 54 44 40 17 16 7 44 22 700-850 TADV 2 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 692 651 578 551 526 532 499 466 404 342 277 173 70 13 51 63 67 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 8 5 4 5 4 6 9 8 6 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 23 33 29 3 1 9 9 14 23 25 28 0 46 41 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 9. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 41. 42. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 15. 16. 10. 3. 1. -1. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 29. 44. 53. 57. 53. 48. 46. 43. 40. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.1 95.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 10/13/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -8.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 17.5% 7.0% 3.0% 0.3% 6.9% 4.8% 19.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.7% 14.4% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1% 8.5% 7.6% 6.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% 26.0% SDCON: 0.8% 12.2% 2.9% 1.0% 0.0% 5.7% 7.3% 16.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 10/13/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##