* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 10/12/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 46 56 69 78 83 84 83 83 83 79 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 46 56 69 78 83 84 83 83 83 79 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 58 66 70 71 73 75 74 73 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 7 5 7 8 3 5 0 2 8 4 10 13 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 3 3 11 6 0 2 2 1 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 332 166 182 185 169 145 152 120 100 233 210 122 177 127 131 113 119 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 165 163 162 162 163 159 159 162 158 159 158 158 158 161 163 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 5 7 6 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 85 84 84 83 83 79 78 78 76 75 73 75 75 74 76 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 15 16 20 21 22 22 20 19 19 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 43 38 34 35 43 36 36 42 37 37 28 43 28 24 14 0 -1 200 MB DIV 89 81 82 76 54 46 90 134 134 114 82 90 44 17 40 52 14 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 701 698 702 698 686 629 579 560 551 497 429 358 320 302 286 286 243 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.3 10.0 10.6 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.5 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.1 93.9 94.6 95.1 95.7 96.7 97.8 98.6 98.7 97.9 96.7 95.8 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 3 2 6 5 5 2 3 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 3 9 6 12 33 32 31 32 12 12 15 16 14 9 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 19. 27. 32. 37. 41. 45. 48. 50. 51. 52. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 15. 16. 16. 12. 10. 9. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 21. 31. 44. 53. 58. 59. 58. 58. 58. 54. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.9 93.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 10/12/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.1% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 27.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 29.2% 11.3% 5.0% 1.3% 8.0% 26.1% 50.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 11.2% Consensus: 1.4% 17.6% 9.9% 1.7% 0.4% 9.8% 17.9% 20.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.7% 10.8% 5.9% 0.8% 0.2% 5.9% 9.9% 11.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 10/12/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##