* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932026 10/12/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 57 62 64 69 72 74 77 77 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 57 62 64 69 72 74 77 77 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 40 45 51 57 62 66 69 70 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 8 11 10 9 6 6 5 4 4 6 4 8 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 2 1 -1 -4 -2 0 -2 3 0 0 7 6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 172 164 142 156 168 170 173 155 162 180 194 175 198 210 125 112 106 SST (C) 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 166 166 165 164 161 162 162 159 157 159 159 160 161 164 162 162 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 83 83 77 79 76 78 75 74 70 70 70 73 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 13 13 15 15 16 17 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 45 42 41 41 29 34 36 37 28 17 5 4 1 0 -9 200 MB DIV 102 87 73 84 62 14 43 80 117 117 93 103 45 67 60 99 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 2 LAND (KM) 670 663 655 638 622 604 551 526 515 497 490 489 526 590 649 676 641 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.7 9.1 10.0 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.6 92.4 93.0 93.7 94.2 95.4 96.6 97.8 98.5 98.7 98.3 98.0 97.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 10 8 0 3 7 32 31 28 31 32 32 32 34 32 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 19. 28. 33. 37. 41. 44. 48. 50. 52. 53. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 8. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 27. 32. 37. 39. 44. 47. 49. 52. 52. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.8 91.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932026 INVEST 10/12/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -19.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.05 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 20.3% 21.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 13.8% 4.8% 1.9% 0.5% 2.8% 9.5% 39.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% Consensus: 0.6% 12.1% 7.6% 0.7% 0.2% 7.7% 10.2% 13.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932026 INVEST 10/12/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##